Technology Forecasting – An Overview
The success of a business lies within the ability of a person to prognosticate the technological changes that might happen in the near future. It is necessary to have an insight on all the advancements anticipated in the field of business. In the current world, there is nothing more fast-paced than the technology. Hence, without proper planning in this field, nobody can become successful.
Technology forecasting helps every organization to plan and organize their work efficiently. If properly done, it helps them to be updated with all the latest trends and the foreseen changes effectively. The process of forecasting is mainly carried out in two major steps which consist of information gathering and the analysis of this information.
Types of Technology Forecasting
- Exploratory Techniques – These techniques make use of the historical evidence. Some people argue that all the technological advancements happening in the world have a connection with their past evolutionary theories. This type of forecasting is usually not much reliable because the various developments in the technology tend to change with the current requirements of the community and the impacts of different changes on them.
- Normative Techniques – This is more reliable compared to the exploratory techniques. In this type of forecasting, the achievement of a particular target in technological development is proposed. They then work backward to determine the steps required to obtain the proposed target. The different viable options and their impacts are foreseen in these techniques. Hence, this forecasting technology helps to gather information on the best step to be adopted to achieve success in a field.
Importance of Technology Forecasting
Helps in the long-term success of an organization.
- Enhance the communication between the different communities, namely government, politics, various industries and science and technology sectors.
- It helps organizations to be well-informed about the radical change likely to happen in the near future. It also gives the approximate timing of the anticipated change.
- It helps to maintain a stable relationship with the people by keeping them informed about the future technological innovations.
- It boosts the self-confidence of an individual or an enterprise to put forward their ideas before the authorities and the people.
- It promotes a feeling of empowerment among the professionals and also helps to motivate the people to carry forward their works more efficiently.
- It gives an idea about the best time to release a particular product into the market.
- It shows the various challenges and hurdles likely to be experienced during the development of technology.
- It helps to understand the parameters necessary to be implemented in an innovation so as to convince the consumers about its importance and efficiency in their lives, both professional and personal.
- It helps to plan strategies on how to improve the standards of living of people with the technological advancements.
- It helps the nation to participate with the other countries in the competitive market.
Technology forecasting can be a short, medium or long-term process.
- Short-term forecasts – It is usually done to plan the strategies for a single product or innovation.
- Medium-term forecasts – It is done for a period of 2-10 years.
- Long-term forecasts – It is done to foresee the release of all the possible innovations in the field of technology.
It is also crucial to take proper precautions while doing a technology forecast. Every organization should ensure that the forecasting is done by experienced personnel within the company and not by an intern or trainee. Relevant experience and intuitive skills are necessary to analyze the future developments efficiently.
A forecast is basically a conjecture, which cannot be expected to be impeccable. But to save every organization from being vulnerable due to their lack of knowledge in the immediate future of technology, this type of forecasting is essential. Proper planning, careful analysis, and interpretation are all the deciding factors on how precise a prediction is. A wrong foresight can result in the downfall of an entire organization.
Technology forecast is inevitable in our current scenario. Being in alignment with the current and future developments in the field of technology is a must to sustain in the world market. Though the forecasting techniques are not absolutely flawless, without them the entire hard work of any organization would be nullified. Trying to promote any product without considering its importance in the future markets is of no use. Whether it is to improve the standard of living of a society, to explore the feasibility of a new technology or to understand the future demands of a society, all require an effective technology forecasting for better assessment.